Mumbai: “The Ups and Downs of Gold Recycling: Understanding Market Drivers and Industry Challenges,” written and published recently by the World Gold Council (WGC) and The Boston Consulting Group (BCG), analyses the economic drivers of the global gold recycling market and highlights important future industry trends including; a shift in concentration of gold recycling from west to east, increased difficulty in obtaining gold from electronic products as less is used in modern devices, and potential consolidation within the recycling industry across the entire value chain.
The report shows that between 1995 and 2014, recycled gold1 accounted for, on average, about a third of total supply2. This average belies the dynamic, responsive nature of recycling. An analysis of recycling data from 1982 to 2012 reveals that price fluctuations accounted for around 75 percent of the changes in recycling volumes and that economic shocks can boost recycling by up to 20 percent.
The report examines the challenges and opportunities facing the gold recycling industry, which has two main components; high-value recycled gold3 and industrial recycled gold4. The growing volume in waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) offers opportunities for industrial materials recycling, although obtaining gold from this material will become ever harder as smaller amounts of gold are used in them.
Furthermore, as Asia’s stock of gold keeps growing the ‘centre of gravity’ for gold recycling will likely shift east. India’s and China’s gold jewellery consumption rose from 28 percent of the global total in 2004 to 60 percent in 2014 and as a consequence local competition for gold recycling business could heat up in Asia.
Intensified competition and overcapacity in the near and mid-terms represent the main challenges for both the high-value and industrial gold recycling segments. In addition, falls in precious metal prices have squeezed margins along the recycling value chain, spurring consolidation.
Alistair Hewitt, Head of Market Intelligence at the WGC said, “The decline in recycling in 2014 was widespread across both developing and industrial countries, although more severe in the latter. Looking forward, we expect recycling to remain low in 2015, and possibly decrease further given that a large portion of near-market supply has been flushed out in recent years. Reduced volumes of distress selling may further suppress recycling volumes and many recycling collectors are struggling to source stock. That said, recycling is the most dynamic element of supply and helps balance the gold market; any price increase in 2015 may elicit an increase in gold recycling volumes.”
Matthias Tauber, Partner and Managing Director, The BCG said, “Industry players in the gold recycling market face a complex blend of challenges and opportunities. Chief among the challenges is overcapacity, particularly in waste electrical and electronic equipment recycling which has nearly doubled over the past 10 years. To succeed, companies must rethink their competitive strategies and operating models – including leveraging economies of scale through M&A and strengthening their operational excellence and reputation among customers.”
In 2014 gold recycling fell to a seven-year low and is expected to remain low in 2015. This is partly a result of gold prices being lower than they were several years ago, leading to less ‘distress selling’ as a result of greater economic stability, and the depletion of near-market gold recycling materials.
Mr. Somasundaram PR, Managing Director, India, WGC said, “The fundamental driver of gold demand in India is the cultural affinity towards gold coupled with a rich native wisdom about the economics of gold in a household portfolio. Social changes and new asset classes have fundamentally reinforced the role of gold as an essential diversifier and as a long term hedge against inflation. Demand of this nature cannot be reshaped by supply curbs and higher taxes. While India can’t increase its local supply through mining, it certainly has the ability to increase supply through recycling. Currently only 0.5% of total stocks are recycled in India, but the recent policy announcement introducing a standard India gold coin, bonds and a new monetization scheme rightly seek to address varied consumer preferences linked to gold, which are also likely to impact recycling.
These initiatives will doubtless limit the unofficial market and together with other general measures announced, have a healthy impact on India’s gold sector raising its profile. The manufacture and sale of coins and the infrastructure needed to ensure a successful monetization scheme will enhance the viability of the refineries and will, over time, create a robust recycling industry in the country. Artificial curbs on demand have no place if recycling is to be successful.”
