Mumbai: The World Gold Council (WGC) launched a one-off essay collection, Gold 2048, bringing together industry-leading experts from across the globe to analyze how the gold market is set to evolve in the next 30 years.
Key conclusions emerging from authors such as George Magnus, senior economist; Rick Lacaille, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Global Advisors; and Michelle Ash, Chief Innovation Officer at Barrick Gold include:
The expanding middle class in China and India, combined with broader economic growth, will have a significant impact on gold demand.
Use of gold across energy, healthcare and technology is changing rapidly. Gold’s position as a material of choice is expected to continue and evolve over the coming decades.
Mobile apps for gold investment, which allow individuals to buy, sell, invest and gift gold will develop rapidly in India and China.
Environmental, social and governance issues will play an increasing role in re-shaping mining production methods.
The gold mining industry will have to grapple with the challenge of producing similar levels of gold over the next 30 years to match the volume it has historically delivered.
One of the essays specific to the Indian gold market, titled, ‘The great Indian middle class: a force to reckon with’ assesses the long-term outlook for India. The essay authored by, Dr Rajesh Shukla, Managing Director and CEO of the People Research on India’s Consumer Economy (PRICE) says that, “By 2048, if political and economic reforms have their desired effect, the income pyramid will gradually develop into a ‘fat lady’ – with a smallish bottom of the deprived and aspirers, a huge bulge in the middle of the middle class and a big head of the rich.”
Another essay titled, ‘Gold in 30 years’ by the World Gold Council’s John Reade, Head of Research and Chief Market Strategist, studies the possible outcomes of a transformed gold market in 2048. One of the common themes explored by Mr. Reade is: China and India will become the world’s largest economies but both countries will face challenges. China needs to overcome the potential roadblock of the middle-income trap. India needs to continue restructuring its economy and reducing bureaucracy to achieve its potential.
