| Metal | This Week | Last Week | Change |
| Gold (MCX) | ₹1,52,652 / 10g | ₹1,49,680 / 10g | +₹2,972 (+2.0%) |
| Silver (MCX) | ₹2,43,274 / kg | ₹2,32,495 / kg | +₹10,779 (+4.6%) |
Macro Snapshot:
Mumbai: Global precious metals got a meaningful tailwind mid-week after the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8, which pulled oil below $100 per barrel and softened the dollar. However, the Islamabad talks over the weekend failed to produce further progress, leaving the ceasefire fragile and the Strait of Hormuz effectively still closed heading into next week.
US CPI for March came in at 3.3% year-on-year with a 0.9% monthly surge, the steepest rise in nearly four years, driven almost entirely by the energy shock from the Hormuz closure. This creates a difficult tension for gold and silver: while inflation is structurally supportive of precious metals as a hedge, a sustained rise in US 10-year Treasury yields — which tend to move up in inflationary environments — increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and can act as a meaningful headwind. For now, safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand is winning that tug of war, but US 10Y yields remain the key variable to watch.
For India, the RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% on April 8, with Governor Malhotra explicitly flagging the West Asia conflict as a new source of pressure on the rupee and inflation outlook. The rupee closing around 92.68 to the dollar means every dollar-denominated move in gold is amplified in MCX terms — a weaker rupee acts as a structural floor under domestic prices, independent of what COMEX does.
Gold | MCX GOLD1!
Close: ₹1,52,652 per 10g Prior week: ₹1,49,680 Change: +₹2,972 (+2.0%) | 200 EMA: ₹1,31,600
This week’s steady grind higher needs to be read in context. MCX Gold had corrected sharply from its all-time high of around ₹1,63,000, and the last few weeks have been about finding a base. The V-shaped recovery visible on the chart — with lows around ₹1,37,000-38,000 in late March followed by a controlled climb — suggests buyers stepped in with conviction at those levels. The current price sits roughly 6.3% below that all-time peak, but the broader uptrend remains firmly intact. At ₹1,52,652, spot prices are trading nearly 16% above the 200 EMA at ₹1,31,600. This week’s price action — buyer-led, no sharp intraday reversals — looks more like a continuation of recovery than a one-off bounce.
| Key Takeaway: Gold is in a recovery phase after a meaningful correction. The ₹1,49,000-1,50,000 zone held well as support this week. Jewellers planning wedding season inventory should note that with the ceasefire fragile, Islamabad talks having failed, and CPI hot, the path of least resistance remains upward. However, rising US 10Y yields could limit the pace of recovery. Buying in tranches rather than in bulk remains sensible until there is clarity on the next round of diplomatic talks. |
Silver | MCX SILVER1!
Close: ₹2,43,274 per kg Prior week: ₹2,32,495 Change: +₹10,779 (+4.6%) | 200 EMA: ₹2,00,468
Silver’s chart tells a similar story to gold but with sharper edges. After correcting from highs near ₹2,70,000, silver found a base around ₹2,15,000-16,000 in late March and has been recovering since. This week’s 4.6% gain, more than double gold’s 2.0% move, is consistent with silver’s behaviour during relief rallies: when fear subsides, silver’s industrial demand angle kicks in alongside the safe-haven bid and it tends to move faster than gold in both directions. The 200 EMA at ₹2,00,468 is well below current prices, confirming the long-term uptrend is intact. The gold-silver ratio compressed slightly this week, a sign that risk appetite is returning at the margin.
| Key Takeaway: Silver’s sharper outperformance signals returning risk appetite. For businesses with significant silver exposure, this is a reminder that silver requires tighter risk management than gold — the same catalyst that gave you 4.6% this week can take it back just as quickly if diplomatic talks disappoint. Like gold, the structural picture remains bullish above the 200 EMA, but position sizing relative to the volatility matters. |
Watch Next Week
- Islamabad aftermath: Talks failed over the weekend. Markets open Monday with the ceasefire intact but no diplomatic progress. Any sign of renewed escalation or Hormuz disruption is the sharpest upside catalyst for both metals.
- US PPI — April 14: Will show whether the energy shock is bleeding into producer prices beyond fuel. A hot print reinforces the inflation narrative but also raises the spectre of higher 10Y yields, the key counterforce to watch.
- Fed Beige Book — April 15: Ground-level colour on how the oil shock is transmitting into the US economy. Language here shapes rate cut expectations for 2026 — any dovish signal fuels gold and silver, any hawkish lean is a headwind.
- Rupee and RBI signals: Rupee weakness remains a structural support for MCX prices independent of the global move. Watch for any RBI dollar intervention or commentary that signals a change in stance.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Prices are MCX closing prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Authored by Dhawal Chotai for gems2jewellery.com | Week ending April 10, 2026.
